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Casual Articles - Process and Outcome in Investing
What steps would you take to protect your business from a burglar coming in after office hours and stealing ?40,000? I suspect that you would make sure that all the doors have very good locks. You would install a burglar alarm and maybe even have CCTV surveillance. That should protect your business. Wrong! The burglar did not break into your office; they broke into your internal phone exchange (PBX). Unseen by human or electronic eyes, thousands of pounds are being spent on international telephone calls and your business will pay the bill.How Does It Work? Dial through fraud is not a new problem, it just has limited publicity. It exploits a PBX feature that allows employees to ring in to the switchboard and by keying certain dialling codes, make national and international calls for which the company will pay the bill.Many businesses will take an "It will never happen to me" approach to dial through fraud, even though most business PBXs are setup to be maintained remotely. This is to allow engineers from a maintenance company to make changes to the configuration without needing to make a site visit but it exposes the PBX. The administration port on the PBX will be connected to a modem that in turn is connected to an extension on the PBX.Using trial and err
This anecdote draws attention to one of the
With all the furor over Simon Cowell’s apparent abuse of the disillusioned, most of the press seems to be missing the point of the audition phase of American Idol these days. Most, except for BuddyTV.com.I mean why does the show seem to gather its largest audience during the audition phase and the finale? The ratings for American Idol look like a banana. The answer is quite simple. People want the bad singers as much as they want the great, so it is therefore American Idol’s responsibility to deliver them. Even more so, though, people want to see Simon smack the disillusionment from their heads.Take American Idol: Season 6, Episode 6 Recap (please). Also dubbed the “American Idol Los Angeles Auditions”. Should we expect any larger concentration of out of their goard goofballs on American Idol than those from Hollyweird itself? Every year the LA episode is the spectacle of this phase of the audition segments. If we needed any better example than Goddess Bunny to show us that Hollywood is full of deranged wanna-bees with sadly twisted views of the talent they posses, it would be the American Idol Los Angeles Auditions.Throw o
Be the House
Individual decisions can be badly thought through, and yet be successful, or exceedingly well thought through, but be unsuccessful, because the recognized possibility of failure in fact occurs. But over time, more thoughtful decision-making will lead to better overall results, and more thoughtful decision-making can be encouraged by evaluating decisions on how well they were made rather than on outcome.
--Robert Rubin, Harvard Commencement Address, 2001
Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.
--David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker
Hit Me
Paul DePodesta, a former baseball executive and one of the protagonists in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball, tells about playing blackjack in Las Vegas when a guy to his right, sitting on a seventeen, asks for a hit. Everyone at the table stops, and even the dealer asks if he is sure. The player nods yes, and the dealer, of course, produces a four. What did the dealer say? “Nice hit.” Yeah, great hit. That’s just the way you want people to bet -- if you work for a casino.
This anecdote draws attention to one of the m
IntroductionPeople page through a magazine in a similar fashion as they surf through the web. The average attention span is not very long; eyes wander attempting to take in all of the stimuli. While paging through a magazine, a person is most likely to glance at a great number of advertisements. While reading articles, it relieves pressure on the brain to take a break from the text and take in some visual graphics. Millions of people either subscribe or peer through magazines generating great potential for sales for an advertiser. Are your ads featured in magazines? Consumers are more likely to focus on the more compelling images on the page during the process of looking through a magazine or reading an article.“The successful advertiser is the master of a new art: the art of making things true by saying they are so.”Magazine advertising is a spectacular way to gain the attention of a larger base of consumers. A potential customer may serendipitously become intrigued about a product or keep a company in mind while thumbing through a magazine. Ads come in different shapes, sizes, and times of occurrence. Contacting a publishing service will enable you to get a good idea of options and pricing available. The magazine medium is not something to be ‘looked over’ by adve
--Robert Rubin, Harvard Commencement Address, 2001
Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.
--David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker
Hit Me
Paul DePodesta, a former baseball executive and one of the protagonists in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball, tells about playing blackjack in Las Vegas when a guy to his right, sitting on a seventeen, asks for a hit. Everyone at the table stops, and even the dealer asks if he is sure. The player nods yes, and the dealer, of course, produces a four. What did the dealer say? “Nice hit.” Yeah, great hit. That’s just the way you want people to bet -- if you work for a casino.
This anecdote draws attention to one of the
Delaware corporations are corporations that have their charter in the state of Delaware. Delaware has long been known to be a corporate-friendly state, and its long tradition of successfully applying corporate law allows it to score over rival states even though other states too are sometimes as corporate-friendly as Delaware, if not more. It is also widely acknowledged that the Delaware General Corporation Law is the nation’s most flexible and developed corporation act. Together with this, the fact that these acts and corporate laws are periodically revised and updated makes it easier for companies to do business in Delaware. The business-like attitude and customer-friendliness that characterize the government offices that handle corporations in Delaware are additional factors that influence corporations when they decide on Delaware as the location of their businesses.A noticeable fact about Delaware's business and financial landscape is the large number of credit-card companies that are incorporated here. This practice stems from the fact that Delaware is one of the few states that has very lenient interest rate laws. This effectively gives banks the freedom to charge any level of interest rates.Incorporation of a business in Delaware is done through the Division of Corporations. Thi
--David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker
Hit Me
Paul DePodesta, a former baseball executive and one of the protagonists in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball, tells about playing blackjack in Las Vegas when a guy to his right, sitting on a seventeen, asks for a hit. Everyone at the table stops, and even the dealer asks if he is sure. The player nods yes, and the dealer, of course, produces a four. What did the dealer say? “Nice hit.” Yeah, great hit. That’s just the way you want people to bet -- if you work for a casino.
This anecdote draws attention to one of the
Most small business owners have considered financing at some point in the life of their business. You may have considered expansion, buying new equipment, more inventories, purchasing real estate, or just looking for a new capital infusion. But the confusion surrounding SBA loans may perplex or frustrate even the most astute entrepreneur. Conflicting information from your trusted advisors or the internet may not help to bring you closer to separating fact from fiction.There are many myths surrounding SBA loans. Some of these myths are substantial and strong enough to discourage a small business owner from expanding, getting out from under onerous debt, or even staying in business. Understanding how an SBA loan works and how to successfully get one for your business is a matter of separating the facts from the myths. You may recognize yourself in some of the following misconceptions of SBA loans. You will finish this article more informed and in possession of the facts. The facts regarding SBA loans can help you to be a better, more successful small business owner.The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) was created in 1953 as an independent agency of the federal government to aid, counsel, assist and protect the interests of small business concerns, to preserve free competitive ent
Hit Me
Paul DePodesta, a former baseball executive and one of the protagonists in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball, tells about playing blackjack in Las Vegas when a guy to his right, sitting on a seventeen, asks for a hit. Everyone at the table stops, and even the dealer asks if he is sure. The player nods yes, and the dealer, of course, produces a four. What did the dealer say? “Nice hit.” Yeah, great hit. That’s just the way you want people to bet -- if you work for a casino.
This anecdote draws attention to one of the
One of the most common issues that comes up for business owners is procrastination -wasting time, putting obstacles in the way of taking action towards goals, making excuses for delays, creating confusion/ ‘busyness’ etc. Procrastination is a self-defeating behavior.As human beings, we are adept at creating convincing language that allows us to rationalize taking specific action or not taking action. We become masterful in presenting a logical sounding viewpoint that successfully defends our position to procrastinate. In this way, we give ourselves permission to step into avoidance, despite the results we say we want!Having a game plan with action steps can foster procrastination. Over time we develop an automatic patterned response to change, convinced that what we are doing is moving us forward. In reality, we’re just playing the same old game, creating the illusion of moving forward. Bottom line – get real by getting honest with yourself.As a small business owner do you:1. Keep saying you’re going to do something and don’t follow through? Saying one thing and doing something else? The intended action continues to exist in the future as a goal, always out of reach without being fully actualized. The dangling carrot.2. Prioritize other things first before you can
This anecdote draws attention to one of the most fundamental concepts in investing: process versus outcome. In too many cases, investors dwell solely on outcomes without appropriate consideration of process. The focus on results is to some degree understandable. Results -- the bottom line -- are what ultimately matter. And results are typically easier to assess and more objective than evaluating processes.
But investors often make the critical mistake of assuming that good outcomes are the result of a good process and that bad outcomes imply a bad process. In contrast, the best long-term performers in any probabilistic field -- such as investing, sports-team management, and pari-mutuel betting -- all emphasize process over outcome.
Jay Russo and Paul Schoemaker illustrate the process-versus-outcome message with a simple two-by-two matrix. Their point is that because of probabilities, good decisions will sometimes lead to bad outcomes, and bad decisions will sometimes lead to good outcomes -- as the hit-on-seventeen story illustrates. Over the long haul, however, process dominates outcome. That’s why a casino -- “the house” -- makes money over ti
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