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Casual Articles - The A B Cs of Scenario Planning
the third in a series taken from:How to Evaluate and Profit from a Business Opportunity - The Entrepreneur's Guide.Guess what every not-yet-an-entrepreneur says when they are asked what's keeping them from owning their own business?"No money. I don't have enough money."Certainly many may not have enough money, but most people don't understand how much money they have -- or may have access to. They also don't realize that money is just one resource they will need to get their business up and running, or bought and open for business.Many people pass up opportunities because they don't think about the resources they have. Instead, they focus on what they don't have. A successful business owner is resourceful. Think about that word for a moment. What comes to mind? Someone who can make a fire with a piece of rock and some dry twigs? Maybe somebody who can open a locked car with a coat hanger or who can figure out how to get the computer program to run. That's what successful business people can do because they can reach back into their experiences and draw out what they need to solve problems.Most people probably don't think of themselves as resourceful and many of you reading this probably would say that you aren't as well. But as with most things in life, we weren’t born being resourceful, we came to it by dealing with problems. The more practice you've had the better at it you become. And small business owners are confronted with many problems so they quickly become very resourceful.The first time I was identified as resourceful came when I was put in charge of the complaint and claims department for Johnson & Johnson. The previous manager sort of let things go and the folks doing the work were way behin
Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building t
There is a debate that has surfaced in the skip trace world in the past few years.No, we are not talking about the battle over paper or plastic or even the cola wars. Should you use real skip tracers or just databases? This has crossed the mind of more than one collection manager. There are pros and cons to each side.Let’s take a look at just using databases first. It starts with subscribing to a database which offers name, address, phone number and so on. You input the information you have onto the request screen and request new information. The updated information is then returned to you. Usually it is not very (a relative term) expensive. You then use the information recently obtained to collect funds, property or whatever you are after. When it is described like that it sounds perfect doesn’t it?Unfortunately now for the down side. The database companies work very hard at keeping their information up to date and some of them are very reputable companies. That being said, here is how it works. The database companies mainly get their information the same ways. Everything from magazine subscriptions to public records are mixed together to get information on everyone. However, even with their best attempts, it does not take long to become outdated. The database companies claim that they are kept up to date most of the time. But, that is the same thing as saying, we have just skip traced every person in the country and we have their information. That doesn’t seem to be possible.Now the other side of the debate. A skip tracer is a living being that uses different resources, skills and experiences to obtain the needed information to find a person or property’s whereabouts. Using every legal means they obtain the information that
There are a number of approaches to scenario planning, and they differ greatly based on the people doing the planning and the type of industry the planning is done for. Some of the best examples come from Citibank and Royal Dutch Shell and although the BASIC’s of each are the same the actual scenarios will be very different. Where Shell would be concerned with the Middle East cutting off oil supplies to one political entity or another while Citibank might be more concerned with Japan or the European economy going into a recession.
The most important thing to remember is to challenge your assumptions and create a new and hopefully more realistic view of the future from which to begin the strategic planning process. In many companies the entire concept of “strategic planning” has been changed to “scenario planning.” If you can successfully test and restructure the assumptions of the decision makers you have a much better chance of generating creative scenarios and, therefore, strong and aggressive strategic plans. The idea is not to “get it right” but to expand the thought process.
Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan.
Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building t
D. W. Griffith is regarded by many as one of the greatest filmmakers of all time. More than anyone of the silent era, he recognized the potential of movies as an expressive medium. During that time, his achievements were momentous. In 1915 he finished the feature “Birth of a Nation,” regarded as the first masterpiece of cinema. In 1919 he finished the movie “Intolerance” (1919), which marked a new standard in filmmaking. His next two movies, “Broken Blossoms” (1919) and “Way Down East” (1920), sealed his reputation as America’s preeminent director. According to James Agee, "To watch his work is like being a witness to the beginning of melody, or the first conscious use of the lever or the wheel; the emergence, coordination, and first eloquence of language; the birth of an art: and to realize that this is all the work of one man." The great silent movie actor Lillian Gish called him "the father of film" and Charlie Chaplin called him "the teacher of us all." During the same time, D. W. Griffith also exhibited superb business instincts by founding the United Artist production company together with Douglas Fairbanks, Charlie Chaplin, and Mary Pickford, the three greatest performers of the day.However, from the mid to late 1920s things began to change. His intuitive powers started to wane. In 1924, at the age of 49, Griffith wrote in an article published by the Saturday Evening Post, “We do not want now and we shall never want the human voice with our films.” Only three years later, in 1927 the first talking movie, “The Jazz Singer” with Al Jolson was released. The reaction of the public to the movie was astounding. The picture was a sellout, one of the big box office hits of all time. In October 1930, the Fortune magazine wrote, "The a
The most important thing to remember is to challenge your assumptions and create a new and hopefully more realistic view of the future from which to begin the strategic planning process. In many companies the entire concept of “strategic planning” has been changed to “scenario planning.” If you can successfully test and restructure the assumptions of the decision makers you have a much better chance of generating creative scenarios and, therefore, strong and aggressive strategic plans. The idea is not to “get it right” but to expand the thought process.
Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan.
Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building t
Although technical skills are essential for IT consultants, there are many other things you need to know when running your own business. Here is a list of a few of the most important things you need to learn when running your own business.Learn How to Say "No"A lot of people may make crazy requests or waste your time as you begin your business. They may not have the money to pay or they may just be expecting too much. In order to stand your ground and run a successful business, you must learn to say "No."Learn About Banking and Merchant AccountsSetting up a business bank account should be one of your first steps. If you plan on reselling products, you'll need to set up a merchant account so that you can accept credit cards.Learn How to Manage Your FinancesYou need to make sure you get paid, get paid well, and get paid fast. You're going to need to figure out your expenses, know how to balance your checkbook, know about credit and collections and how that ties in to your whole billing and invoicing system.Learn How to Track Prospects and ClientsYou don't want to lose prospects or clients by failing to remember to make that important call. Use simple databases to track your clients and your plans.Learn How to DelegateEven if you don't plan to expand to having employees, at some point you will likely be working with contractors. You need to learn how to delegate when you don't have time for an activity or when it's simply not a priority in the business.Find out more about running your own computer consulting business in the article, IT Consulting: You Need More Than Just Technical Skills (link above).Copyright MMI-MMVII, PC Support Tips .com. All Worldwide Rights Reserve
Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan.
Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building t
Supermarkets and other retailers are jumping on board the environmental consciousness train, promoting more and more of their products as environmentally friendly; meanwhile, mainstream food manufacturers are opting in to the organic food trend.From Welch's grape juice to organic lettuce in the produce bins, food retailers are getting the message that natural is in. Natural snacks are being advertised on national TV as being available in supermarkets, and entire sections of these giant markets are being devoted to food and cleaning products formerly found only in natural foods stores.Retailers increase the bottom line by promoting recyclable tote bags.One practice welcomed by environmentally conscious consumers is the selling of reusable tote bags of natural canvas, designed to replace the "paper or plastic" alternatives available at most grocery checkout counters. For a reasonable price, customers can purchase the requisite number of canvas totes to package their groceries and then reuse the bags on future trips to the store, doing their bit to save the environment and saving the retailers a few pennies on every transaction in the process. Savvy retailers often order the canvas totes with their store logo and street address on the bags, a way to market their business and engender customer loyalty while positioning themselves as environmentally friendly. Additional products, such as mini tote lunch bags and backpacks, provide another income stream. For real purists, these bags are often available made of organic cotton canvas.Closing the circle: promoting products made from recycled materials.All the recycling campaigns in the world aren't worth anyth
Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, “In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year, blah, blah, blah” - and from there write a strategic plan.
Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building t
An Internet presence can help you land a job. By having visible content in your control ranking on the first page of Google when someone does a search on your name, you can absolutely put yourself ahead of anyone else you might be competing with for a job opportunity.A June 12, 2006 ExecuNet Press Release ("Growing Number Of Job Searches Disrupted By Digital Dirt") stated:"According to a recent survey of 100 executive recruiters conducted by ExecuNet, the leading executive job search and recruiting network, 77% use search engines to learn more about candidates. Of those who use sites such as Google (GOOG) and Yahoo! (YHOO) to check the background of job seekers, 35% have eliminated a candidate from consideration based on the information uncovered online – up significantly from 26% just one year ago."And that's just recruiters. Do you think an executive hiring authority does this during a recruiting process with respect to the candidates they are looking at investing time into interviewing?The problem that many executives have with their Internet presence is all that surfaces are press release quotes (if they have anything surfacing at all). Press release quotes really don't do anything to showcase your unique executive value proposition or subject matter expertise.This is easy to fix if you have access to the right tools and are willing to spend a little time writing.By publishing blogs and articles on high traffic frequently indexed sites like Ecademy, EzineArticles, et al. you can create and drive content in your control showcasing your unique executive value proposition and subject matter expertise. This content will often rise above the press release quotes in Google ranking when someone searches
Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building the one that is desired while taking into account what COULD happen and how it would affect the plan. A major advantage of using scenarios to set up strategic planning is to gain ideas and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the “desired” outcome and, therefore, be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary.
What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our relationships with our customers and what can we do to position ourselves for whatever you need to accomplish in that eventuality?
If you could predict the future you would be telling fortunes instead of working in the distribution industry.
So what is this thing called Scenario Planning all about?
Scenario planning is just a tool. Like any other management tool it is only valuable if you understand it and put it to use.
Scenario planning has progressed to the point of becoming a popular management tool to support and even replace
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