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Casual Articles - Business Plan Mistakes - The Phantom Growth Rate
Analyzing Your Customers br />Analyzing consumersThe dynamic retail environment depends on how well a retail company identifies and understands its customers and forms its business strategy to appeal the consumers’ characteristics, needs and attitudes. Each consumer segment has its own value equation and shops accordingly, Retailers must examine consumers on different levels to identify and understand the target market and generate relevant business strategy, The consumer demographics consists of gender, age, population growth rate, life expectancy, literacy, language, house hold size, marital and family st Year Revenue ---- ----------- 1 $ 1,920,086 2 2,400,000 3 3,000,000 4 3,750,000 5 4,688,000 This summary proudly boasted a projected growth rate of 25% annually. Noticing that the business plan writer had switched from a monthly chart to an annual chart alerted me to a potential trap. Sure enough, they had fallen in--big time! Let me explain. (I am letting you in on my thinkin Understanding Opportunity Costs While visiting a friend, he asked a favor of me. He whipped out this humongous business plan consisting of two full 3-inch loose-leaf binders. Someone he knew had paid a whopping $250,000 to have this business plan prepared and my friend was interested in my opinion of it.Opportunity costs is a term used in economics to explain that for every decision made in business (or personally) there is both an opportunity and a cost associated with that opportunity. If you have never been exposed to opportunity cost before it may not make a lot of sense, so I will summarize the concept in simple terms so you understand this very important concept.Let’s say you can only have either chicken or hamburger for dinner tonight, but not both. The opportunity to have chicken will cost you the opportunity to have hamburger. Likewise, if you choose to have hambur At first I considered telling him I had something else to do and couldn't spend the next ten hours reading a "Gone-With-The-Wind" business plan. Had I been an actual potential investor presented with this monster, I would have simply dumped it in the trash and told the entrepreneur, "Thank you for considering me as a potential investor, but it doesn't fit my current criteria." Nevertheless, I relented and agreed to look it over. My thought was, "OK, give it to me and I'll look it over as soon as I can." No such luck. He sat down at the table next to me with a child-like grin of anticipation on his face. He wanted me to look it over and give my opinion now! I thought, how can he expect me to digest this while he is looking at me like a puppy waiting for me to toss him a ball? So, I dug in. Little did I know that this would turn out to be one of the fastest appraisals I would ever make. Just like an investor, I turned to the financials in the back. (Note--investors typically don't read a business plan from the front to the back. They start by looking at the financials in the back!) On the first page of the financials section, I saw a summary showing two graphs represented by the following tables (the actual numbers and dates have been changed to protect the guilty): Year 1 Projected Revenues Annual Projected RevenuesThis summary proudly boasted a projected growth rate of 25% annually. Noticing that the business plan writer had switched from a monthly chart to an annual chart alerted me to a potential trap. Sure enough, they had fallen in--big time! Let me explain. (I am letting you in on my thinking Do Not Depend Solely on the Doctor in the House to do the Surgery "Thank you for considering me as a potential investor, but it doesn't fit my current criteria."Many business leaders are good at starting a business or maintaining one that has already been well established. However, they are not good at fixing a seriously sick business. Avoid bankruptcy by hiring the turnaround experts.They often do not have the experience, skills, temperament or willingness to do a proper turnaround. Sometimes, the business leader himself is the hindrance and obstacle to the entire turnaround process because of past encumbrances and prejudices. An outsider is quite often required to execute the turnaround.Most of the time, a troubled com Nevertheless, I relented and agreed to look it over. My thought was, "OK, give it to me and I'll look it over as soon as I can." No such luck. He sat down at the table next to me with a child-like grin of anticipation on his face. He wanted me to look it over and give my opinion now! I thought, how can he expect me to digest this while he is looking at me like a puppy waiting for me to toss him a ball? So, I dug in. Little did I know that this would turn out to be one of the fastest appraisals I would ever make. Just like an investor, I turned to the financials in the back. (Note--investors typically don't read a business plan from the front to the back. They start by looking at the financials in the back!) On the first page of the financials section, I saw a summary showing two graphs represented by the following tables (the actual numbers and dates have been changed to protect the guilty): Year 1 Projected Revenues Annual Projected RevenuesThis summary proudly boasted a projected growth rate of 25% annually. Noticing that the business plan writer had switched from a monthly chart to an annual chart alerted me to a potential trap. Sure enough, they had fallen in--big time! Let me explain. (I am letting you in on my thinkin Staying In The Game ld turn out to be one of the fastest appraisals I would ever make.The message came from Human Resources. There's nothing to worry about with the newly announced organizational changes and pending merger, it reassured. The changes will be good for the company and good for the people who work here it coached.I've seen a couple dozen messages like this during my career. In fact, I've even crafted a few. I've been through mergers, acquisitions, downsizings, organizational changes, personal career set-backs and a myriad of new corporate initiatives. And the best lesson I learned from all of them? Stay a player.Granted my tactics for what th Just like an investor, I turned to the financials in the back. (Note--investors typically don't read a business plan from the front to the back. They start by looking at the financials in the back!) On the first page of the financials section, I saw a summary showing two graphs represented by the following tables (the actual numbers and dates have been changed to protect the guilty): Year 1 Projected Revenues Annual Projected RevenuesThis summary proudly boasted a projected growth rate of 25% annually. Noticing that the business plan writer had switched from a monthly chart to an annual chart alerted me to a potential trap. Sure enough, they had fallen in--big time! Let me explain. (I am letting you in on my thinkin Demystifying Job Applications ----- -----------Applying for a job can be nerve wracking. How you go about it will determine whether you will get your dream job or whether you will have to go on looking. Here are some tips for an effective and successful job application.Presentation and ContentYou are just an anonymous face at the beginning of the application process. You are, in fact, just one of the hundreds or even thousands of people who have replied to a job advertisement. As such, it is important that your first object is to make yourself positively stand out.Thus, you should write an impressiv 1 $ 7,457 2 11,185 3 16,778 4 25,167 5 37,750 6 56,626 7 84,938 8 127,407 9 191,111 10 286,667 11 430,000 12 645,000 ----- ----------- Total $ 1,920,086 Annual Projected RevenuesThis summary proudly boasted a projected growth rate of 25% annually. Noticing that the business plan writer had switched from a monthly chart to an annual chart alerted me to a potential trap. Sure enough, they had fallen in--big time! Let me explain. (I am letting you in on my thinkin Learning From Students br />Yesterday evening I was invited to present end of year and exam certificates to students at a local school. I was absolutely thrilled to do this particularly as I have been involved in helping many of the business students over the last couple of years.The academic achievements were fantastic. And whilst most students matched my expectations, two students really surprised me.The first one came on stage to rapturous applause from his classmates. I was intrigued and asked him, “How come you’re so popular?”“Do you want to see my dance?”“Okay,” I said. Not Year Revenue ---- ----------- 1 $ 1,920,086 2 2,400,000 3 3,000,000 4 3,750,000 5 4,688,000 This summary proudly boasted a projected growth rate of 25% annually. Noticing that the business plan writer had switched from a monthly chart to an annual chart alerted me to a potential trap. Sure enough, they had fallen in--big time! Let me explain. (I am letting you in on my thinking at this time--I hadn't said anything yet to my friend.) They projected an annual growth rate of 25%. But look at this: doesn't the last month of the first year have sales in excess of $600,000? Look in the first table. Sure enough--$645,000 to be exact. Now, if there were NO SALES GROWTH (0%) from that last month's level, what would be the revenue for the next year? Twelve times $645,000, right? That comes to a whopping $7,740,000! $7,740,000 is over $3,000,000 more than they projected for the fifth year. That's after four years of "25%" annual growth, according to them! Remember, I said NO GROWTH--zero--nada--zip! I asked my friend why the company was projecting to lose sales! He had a look of astonishment and confusion. I continued by asking him if the company expected to start the next year at low levels again and build up again, or would they start at the level of the last month and drop down during the year, or what? It finally dawned on him that, by changing the projection time frame, the writers had missed the mathematical relationships. Seeing this flaw in the logic, he made my appraisal for me. He recognized that the rest of the projections were obviously in error and the entire plan was essentially worthless. At best, a major review of the numbers was needed. The result: $250,000 blown in 5 minutes because of a phantom growth rate! By the way, you may think this was a single, isolated case. Believe me, it wasn’t. I have found this logic error in the majority of plans. In every case, the business plan writer is astonished and completely deflated. While that is never my intention, it does remind us how easy it can be to succumb to these kinds of traps. (c) Copyright 2006, Leonard M. Stillman Jr., All Rights Reserved.
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