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lightly above 18 from roughly 11. The monthly MACD in 1994 gave and held a bearish crossover, while the current MACD gave a bearish crossover last week, although it's uncertain if it'll hold for the month. The 1994 monthly ULT hel

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There are two Market Forecasts this week (also see "Cyclical Bull Market Support Line"). The first chart below is an SPX monthly chart from January 1990 to November 1994 and the second chart is an SPX monthly chart from January 2002 to the present time (June 2006). The first chart shows SPX traded above the monthly middle Bollinger Band for 37 months, except briefly in October 1992, and then fell below that level when it had a 9.7% correction. The second chart shows SPX traded above the monthly middle Bollinger Band over the past 36 months and continues to hold that level.

Unfortunately, much technical data for the early-1990s are not available. Also, much of the available data for both periods don't have meaningful relationships. However, the VIX MACD and ULT are shown for both periods. Comparing the two pullbacks, the monthly VIX in 1994 rose from roughly 11 to 21, while the current monthly VIX is slightly above 18 from roughly 11. The monthly MACD in 1994 gave and held a bearish crossover, while the current MACD gave a bearish crossover last week, although it's uncertain if it'll hold for the month. The 1994 monthly ULT hel

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02 to the present time (June 2006). The first chart shows SPX traded above the monthly middle Bollinger Band for 37 months, except briefly in October 1992, and then fell below that level when it had a 9.7% correction. The second chart shows SPX traded above the monthly middle Bollinger Band over the past 36 months and continues to hold that level.

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hart shows SPX traded above the monthly middle Bollinger Band over the past 36 months and continues to hold that level.

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ta for both periods don't have meaningful relationships. However, the VIX MACD and ULT are shown for both periods. Comparing the two pullbacks, the monthly VIX in 1994 rose from roughly 11 to 21, while the current monthly VIX is slightly above 18 from roughly 11. The monthly MACD in 1994 gave and held a bearish crossover, while the current MACD gave a bearish crossover last week, although it's uncertain if it'll hold for the month. The 1994 monthly ULT hel

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Currently, the CBOE Put-Call Ratio MAs are at historically extremely high levels, which is typically market bullish (since the put/call is a contrarian indicator). Also, the 10-year bond yield is slightly below the Fed Funds Rate, which may indicate little bond upside and limited stock downside. However, if SPX fails to hold the monthly middle Bollinger Band, currently 1,228 1/2, a larger pullback may take place. If a similar correction takes place, then SPX will fall to 1,197 (9.7% decline from 1,326). Also, if there's a similar bounce after the correction, then SPX will rise to around 1,250 within a month.

Free charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section.

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