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Casual Articles - Stock Picks 101: The Dangers of Over-Optimization
You've got your business set up and running and your first enquiries start coming in. Now is not the time to sit back and relax – you need to stay ahead of the competition and constantly research your market, honing and tuning your marketing. Here are some things that you should absolutely definitely not do.1. Exaggerate your claims. Sooner or later your hype will catch up with you. It’s bad for business to underestimate the intelligence of your potential customers and if yo
You will also want to make sure you have enough trades in the resulting test set so they’re statistically significant. It’s foolish to be confident in any system f
You know there is an excellent product to be introduced to the public. Time passes but the strategy remains ineffective and the question remains: why? To answer this poser we need to get deep into the matter of bad advertising. The most trustworthy statement would sound: the advertising strategy that did not work. Advertising plan aims at different goals. It may be plain increase of sales or maintenance of the process considering the circumstances and accordingly either increasing or decreasing
One of the hidden dangers of system development is over-optimization. As part of your system development process you will be testing your system to see how well it has performed in the past. Some system development tools will let you quickly test thousands of combinations of system parameters in a short period of time.
As you go about evaluating the profit and loss, drawdown and smoothness of the equity curve increase, you’re likely to focus on the one set of parameters that looks best. This is the first danger. It’s better to look for a cluster of superior results than for just one outstanding set of parameters. Choosing parameters that are in the middle of a good cluster of results are likely to lead to more consistent results in the future.
You will also want to make sure you have enough trades in the resulting test set so they’re statistically significant. It’s foolish to be confident in any system fo
Everyone packs their website with keywords in order to feed those keyword-hungry search engines spiders.Just do not starve your potential customers by forgetting to have the food they like:ample helpings of benefitstips rich in protein (practical)automatic weekly feedings (like a newsletter)If you (affectionately) look upon your potential customers as if they are WIIFM monsters, and understand how to care for and feed them, t
As you go about evaluating the profit and loss, drawdown and smoothness of the equity curve increase, you’re likely to focus on the one set of parameters that looks best. This is the first danger. It’s better to look for a cluster of superior results than for just one outstanding set of parameters. Choosing parameters that are in the middle of a good cluster of results are likely to lead to more consistent results in the future.
You will also want to make sure you have enough trades in the resulting test set so they’re statistically significant. It’s foolish to be confident in any system f
CRM Customer Relationship Management is one of the newest innovations in customer service today. CRM stands for customer relationship management and helps the management and customer service staffs cope with customer concerns and issues. CRM involves gathering a lot of data about the customer. The data is then used to facilitate customer service transactions by making the information needed to resolve the issue or concern readily available to those dealing with the customers. This results in mo
As you go about evaluating the profit and loss, drawdown and smoothness of the equity curve increase, you’re likely to focus on the one set of parameters that looks best. This is the first danger. It’s better to look for a cluster of superior results than for just one outstanding set of parameters. Choosing parameters that are in the middle of a good cluster of results are likely to lead to more consistent results in the future.
You will also want to make sure you have enough trades in the resulting test set so they’re statistically significant. It’s foolish to be confident in any system f
Like any other penny stock, if you are looking to buy Pink Sheet stocks it is wise to do your research first. There are no standards that need to be met by the issuer in order to be quoted on the Pink Sheets. Trading Pink Sheet stocks is a scammer’s paradise.Have you ever received an email alerting you of a stock that will double or triple tomorrow, and that this top secret information was only being given out to a handful of carefully selected people? Perhaps you even thought a
You will also want to make sure you have enough trades in the resulting test set so they’re statistically significant. It’s foolish to be confident in any system f
The biggest factor in your restaurant's success will be how well you control your restaurant's expenses. This includes food, labor, advertising, equipment, management, rent, operating costs and the rest of your overhead costs. Here are some tips for controlling your costs to increase your profits.Inventory ControlHow well you control your inventory may well be the most important aspect deciding your restaurant's future. If you allow costs to spiral out of control and make poor dec
You will also want to make sure you have enough trades in the resulting test set so they’re statistically significant. It’s foolish to be confident in any system for which you have a track record with less than 30 trades during the chosen test period. You can have some confidence after you have more than 300 trades in the test period. This assumes you haven’t over-optimized those results.
Even 300 trades don’t guarantee a reliable system. I have seen any number of over-optimized systems that do great for over 300 trades and then lose money forever after.
One way to check your parameters is to hold back some of your historical data as a “test set.” The danger here is that if you use the test set more than once at the very end of your system development, you’re compromising the optimization. This is because your “test set” now has become part of the optimization procedure.
Still, it’s possible to over-optimize if you have a lot of parameters.
HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE:
It might be possible to have a winning system if, for example, t
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